500. Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely

Rating:  ☆☆1/2

Recommended by:

Author:   Don A. Moore

Genre:    Non Fiction, Self Improvement, Psychology, Business

272  pages, published  May 5, 2020

Reading Format:   Audiobook on Overdrive

Summary

Perfectly Confident is written by Don Moore, an expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, and examines the importance of confidence while also assessing the harm from underconfidence and overconfidence.  Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and advises the reader on how to achieve the appropriate level of confidence.

Quotes 

“Ways that psychology research demonstrates we are often overconfident in the decisions we make:

Overestimation – thinking that you are better, faster, or more likely to succeed than you are

Overplacement – the exaggerated belief that you are better than others

Overpercision – excessive faith that you have the right answer.”

 

“Thinking probabilistically, view the future in probabilities and distributions of outcomes as opposed to one specific outcome.”

 

“Ask yourself: WHAT ARE YOU WRONG ABOUT RIGHT NOW?  Calibrating your confidence includes appreciating all the reasons why you might be wrong. Some of the things you currently believe now are WRONG.”

 

“Don’t fall prey to “resulting,” don’t view outcomes as inevitable.”

 

“Why you should start thinking in “expected value.”

 

“Fooling yourself into being more confident can lead you to take risks that may not turn out well. “

 

“Powerful leaders are willing to admit ignorance and bring people to the table who will raise difficult questions.”

 

“Consider thinking of the downside and use a pre-mortem to understand why things have gone horribly awry.”

 

“Capitalize on disagreement. Rather than avoiding or hiding disagreement, try to pull it out to the forefront.”

 

“Ask yourself – what does the other person know that you don’t?”

 

“wisdom is the tolerance for cognitive dissonance.”

 

My Take

While there are a few interesting ideas in Perfectly Confident, on the whole I found it to be a dense read that is better suited to management professionals rather than the average person.  Not many takeaways for improving your confidence or your life.